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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."